2018 Africa Mining Summit
 
2016 Africa Mining Summit
Good Conference and well organised, the topics were informative and debates transparent. The participation by six Ministries from difference countries was the icing on the cake. Charles Siwawa - Botswana Chamber of Mines.
“African Mining Summit 2022 – COP26 Demands, Impact, Opportunities, & Misalignment with realities embedded in the Global Metals & Minerals Supply Chain.”
 
We are another year down the road and the overarching theme in the sector remains not only unchanged, but based on the purely political agendas and outcomes of COP26 are moving towards ‘enforcement’ onto the G13 balance of nation states within the G20 economic block, of the Policy themes, unachievable goals and wish lists of the G7 Governments and institutions around the transition at any cost to Green Energy, to ‘stop’ Climate Change and to achieve Net-Zero Carbon emissions by 2050.   

And still this translates directly to the need for exponential growth in supply of Battery Metals (Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, Graphite & Vanadium) and crossover ‘infrastructure commodities’ like Copper, Manganese and Aluminium, also industrial quantities of precious metals such as Silver for Solar Panels and Tin for Solders, Platinum for Hydrogen Fuel cells and LOHC.  And now Nuclear energy which has been accepted and confirmed by the main stream as a clear necessity for clean base load energy supply as renewable generation alone just doesn’t meet requirements of an industrial world.

Yet, unbelievably and still paradoxically, what continues to be ignored within the policy making Government circles are the same three facts;
  1. There simply isn’t enough current sustainable production of any of these commodities to meet forecasted needs by 2025, nor by 2030 and likely beyond 2040 with 3 of the key Metals already confirmed in supply deficit in 2021.  
  2. The ‘Green Policy’ environment has extended new mine/project permitting cycles to in some cases 5 to 7 years and its likely to get worse.  This extends development of any new and potentially economic production to beyond 15 years and in some commodity cases like Uranium production & processing to >20 years.
  3. The levels and sources of Capital funding required, both equity & debt, are unclear and vary between publicly acknowledged and stated figures pre-COP26 of Euro€1.9 Trillion (by ECB for Eurozone +46% on 2020 est.), US$2.5 Trillion (by USGS for USA +47% on Feb’21 est.), US$2.8 Trillion (by IMF +27% on April’21 est.), and US$3 Trillion (By IEA +87% on April’21 est.).  You can already see inflation impacts in these numbers and my view is that we will likely need double these amounts, inflation adjusted.
All in all the chances of Net-Zero emissions by 2050 simply isn’t realisable now.  Main questions remain, regardless of discovery of required quantities of metals, “Where will the money come from?” and “How will it be preferentially distributed?” given the ‘Green Agenda’ and ESG (Environmental & Social Governance) compliance.